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Price Change Prediction Errors
This page highlights the accuracy of the price predictions. It is updated daily and shows all the error values for the current season (warts and all). To expand a graph, on a PC, select an area of the graph and release. For a smart device use the usual finger movements. To return the graph to the normal view firstly double click it and then it click again. Hover the mouse (or finger) over an error to get information on which player the error corresponds. To view all the individual errors on a particular day you will need to expand the graph.

A large percentage of the observations have an error of zero percent, i.e. the predictions were 100% accurate. These cannot be easily viewed unless the graph is expanded to a daily plot otherwise these observations will overlap. In effect, the plots unexpanded, place emphasis on the accuracies below 100%.

This season 16/17, I am expecting the price prediction accuracy for any players falling in price with a low ownership (say <10,000 teams, i.e. <0.3%) to now reduce (most users will probably not care - but I do!). I have created pseudo statistic replacement elements, but only time will tell how effective these elements are at maintaining the accuracy. The third graph (at the very bottom) shows the price fall accuracy for all players, i.e. including teams with an ownership of less than 10,000 teams.

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